State Laojiao (000568) Quarterly Report Review: 3Q19 Meets Expectations State Reserve Sets New Ten Billion Journey

State Laojiao (000568) Quarterly Report Review: 3Q19 Meets Expectations State Reserve Sets New Ten Billion Journey

Matters: The company released three quarterly reports, and achieved operating income of 11.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 19, an increase of 23 year-on-year.

9%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 3.8 billion yuan, an annual increase of 38%.

Among them, 3Q19 achieved operating income of 34.

600 million, an annual increase of 21.

9%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies10.

50,000 yuan, an annual increase of 35.

5%.

The balance of advance receipts at the end of the third quarter of 19 was 15.

$ 900 million, an increase of about 1 per year.

8 trillion, an increase of about 2 trillion.

Ping An’s perspective: 3Q19 revenue and net profit growth basically meet our and market expectations.

The volume and price of Guojiao 1573 both rose, which was the main driver of growth.

In the third quarter of 19, it was estimated that the sales volume of the national treasury 1573, the average price rose by double digits in half a year, revenue increased by 30-40%, accounting for nearly 60% of the quarter’s revenue.

Continuous expansion. Through Moutai, the approval price of Wuliangye continued to rise, and Guojiao 1573 followed the price increase. With reorganization, the company continued to deepen the group purchase channels and terminals, driving sales growth.

Looking back, the price increase space still mainly depends on Moutai, Wuliangye’s batch price trend, and sales growth are affected by market demand, and the sales policies of Moutai and Wuliangye are affected.

The growth trend of mid-range wines is still being adjusted.

In the third quarter of 19, it is estimated that the growth rate of mid-range wine revenue is significantly slower than the company as a whole, because the introduction of the old product special song for packaging price increases, the number of releases increased in the third quarter of 19, mainly from the special song 60 version and cellar age wine, but the overallThe growth rate should be earlier and slower.

With the introduction of the 60th edition of the special song, and the time-honored special song, the Chuling wine continued to rise in price, and the short-term high-end price belt products of Luzhou Laojiao have been initially made up, which is more conducive to sharing the growth bonus of the sub-high-end industry.

In the low-end wine, the adjustment of the head song product is basically completed. It is estimated that there will be double-value growth in 3Q19, but other products still need to adjust the price positioning. 3Q19 revenue and sales are still expected to decline.

In the third quarter of 19, gross profit margin increased, sales expense ratio and management expense ratio decreased.

Due to the increase in the ex-factory price and the increase in the proportion of the state reserve in 1573, the gross profit margin decreased by 2 in the third quarter of 19.

76Pcts to 84.

twenty three%.

The company’s sales expense ratio for the third quarter of 19 was 30.

78%, 0 in ten years.

58Pcts, because the company increased 杭州桑拿洗浴会所 the cost control efforts in 19 years, the quarterly management expense ratio was 6.

17% (including R & D), degraded in ten years.

19Pct should benefit from scale effects.

The National Cellar’s new 10 billion journey to Chenghang makes continuous health even more important and maintains the “recommended” level.

After 16-19 years of continuous rush, the high-end product Guojiao 1573 has broken back 10 billion yuan in 19 years, and the company has also proposed a new goal of 20 billion yuan.

However, we may consider appropriate steps to lay a solid foundation to ensure the health and sustainability of the entire system.

The 20-year EPS forecast is lowered by about 5%, and the EPS in 19 and 20 is expected to be 3.

20, 3.

64 yuan, an annual increase of about 35%, 14%, PE is about 26.

8, 23.

6 times.

Guojiao 1573 is one of the three major brands of high-end liquor, which can continue to benefit from consumption upgrades, and the second high-end short board has been initially made up, and the adjustment of low-end liquor is nearing its end, maintaining the “recommended” rating.

Risk reminders: 1) Downside risk of liquor industry.The spirit of the liquor industry is highly correlated with the price trend. If the price of liquor drops, it may lead to a significant increase in corporate revenue.

2) Risk of business fluctuations due to changes.

Liquor companies are greatly affected by business strategies, such as mergers and acquisitions, which may lead to corporate revenue and significant changes in profits.

3) Policy risks.

The liquor industry demand, tax rate, etc. are affected by policy changes. If related policies change, it may transform corporate revenue and profit may have a conversion impact.